Cubs and Ian Happ avoid arbitration, but is a long-term extension still possible?

As announcements for arbitration agreements started trickling in, a few names from the Cubs came across Twitter. When reporters arrived to the Sheraton Grand along the Chicago River for Cubs Convention, a Cubs official confirmed the three names. Reliever Codi Heuer, infielder Nick Madrigal and second baseman Nico Hoerner had all agreed to one-year deals and would avoid an arbitration hearing. But a fourth name was conspicuously absent: Ian Happ.

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In 2021, Happ became the first player in more than three decades to go to trial against the Cubs and win his arbitration case. The next year, Happ and the team settled before a hearing. This year, with the deadline for an agreement set for noon central time Friday, a deal had still not been reached.

As Cubs Convention kicked off for the first time in three years, team president Jed Hoyer spoke to a group of local media but had little to update on Happ’s status.

Are you going to a trial with Happ?

“I don’t know,” Hoyer said.

Are you exchanging numbers?

“I don’t know,” Hoyer repeated.

Later, after being introduced to the crowd of Cubs fans as a first-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner, Happ stood in the same spot as Hoyer. No, an agreement hadn’t been reached in those three hours since Hoyer had spoken.

But was there any optimism from Happ’s side that this wouldn’t go to trial?

“We’ll see,” Happ said. “This is the process. It’s not perfect, but it’s the process. It’s our bargaining right and it’s pretty interesting to see how it goes.”

Apparently they were all playing coy. A little after 11 p.m. sources confirmed that Happ and the Cubs had come to an agreement on a one-year deal at $10.85 million.

But the real drama begins now. Will this be Happ’s final season in Chicago?

“We have interest in both (Happ and Hoerner), in keeping them long term,” Hoyer said. “We’ve started the process I guess I would say, we’ve had dialogue with the agents. Where that is in the process I would never reveal or what the offers are, but certainly there’s a real desire and we’ve had those meetings with the representatives.”

But if those conversations on an extension have happened, Happ says they’re not occurring at the moment. The dialogue was focused on 2023. But with that out of the way, could an extension be next? In Boston, Rafael Devers avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $17.5 million deal for 2023. Days later, Devers and the Red Sox agreed to a monster 11-year, $331 million deal. Ideally, the Cubs and Happ would love for that to be their process as well.

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“They’re never ruled out, no,” Happ said of extension talks. “That’s the beauty of it, those are never ruled out. But not right now.”

Happ seemed genuinely excited for the 2023 season and mentioned how for much of his time as a Cub, the convention has been a reunion of teammates and buddies who have known each other and played together for years. But this go-around has felt different. There are new faces at multiple positions with players like Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Eric Hosmer, Tucker Barnhart and Jameson Taillon all being added over the last two months.

“This team is going to be really competitive,” Happ said. “Everybody says it at this time of year, but you can see a path to where we can win a lot of baseball games. It’s cliche, and I don’t want to say this, but we can surprise a lot of people. But there’s a definite way. This team can pitch it, there’s defense there and I think there’s underrated bats, I do. I think there’s more production than people are seeing.”

Perhaps Bellinger can be more like his 2019 self than the one that’s shown up the last two years. Maybe Swanson has another level. Can Seiya Suzuki break out in his second year stateside? Happ himself could show the power he’s had in the past and pair it with the consistency and contact he displayed in 2023. Any of these elements could help elevate the Cubs offense to exceed expectations.

Those questions will be answered during the summer. But the question as to Happ’s future in Chicago beyond this season feels more pressing. Hoyer has stated he would prefer these things get figured out before spring training. That isn’t a hard deadline, but still gives the general timeline of when something could get done.

“Every player prefers to do that as early as possible,” Happ said. “There’s so much uncertainty in this game, so when you can get some certainty at some point in your career, not many people get to achieve that. It’s a pretty special thing. So it’s always sooner rather than later. But there’s a process to these things. There’s cost-certainty of the team, getting the roster together, understanding what the future commitments look like. Then things start to fall into place after that. But that’s not my job.”

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Happ is one of the more observant and thoughtful players around. He prides himself on being a well-rounded person with varied interests beyond baseball. With his work as the team’s union rep over the last three years and recently being voted as part of the union’s executive subcommittee, he’s developed a deep understanding of the financial aspects of the game.

He can appreciate that Hoyer has a lot to weigh when offering him a contract that goes beyond whether they want him to stick around. Happ likely knows that the Cubs’ top prospects are mostly all outfielders and that Hoyer may want to take advantage of their low salaries and allocate his funds elsewhere, Just like Hoyer knows Happ has more to consider than just how much he loves playing in Chicago.

“I love this organization, I’ve loved every second,” Happ said. “Except maybe some parts in 2019. But I’ve loved almost every second of playing here and being a part of it. Wrigley is special, the city is special, the fan base is special. All those things are the only thing I know. On the other side of that, there are 29 other teams that are competing and doing a great job. You earn the right to be a free agent and that’s a special thing too. I’ve said it before, I’d love to stay here, but you don’t have control of those things.”

Happ was sent down to the minors to start the 2019 season. It’s a move that never sat well with the switch-hitting outfielder and one he’s never really credited for the improvements he’s made over the years. And the improvements have been clear, particularly last season when he posted his lowest strikeout rate, delivered a 120 wRC+ and put together a consistent, strong full season.

Happ is proud of the work he’s done to get to this point and wants to show he can continue to grow this season. Maybe he’ll bring back his power stroke and pair it with that newfound consistency. Happ has put in extensive work over the years, on his swing, the mental side of the game and everything in between. He’s earned the right to test the open market if he so desires.

He’s also never wavered in his passion for the Cubs and the city of Chicago. But as Cubs fans have grown accustomed to, love for a team and city can only go so far.

Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and most recently Willson Contreras all uttered similar sentiments and are all now donning other uniforms. Whether those decisions turn out to be the best for them or whether the Cubs were right to not meet their contract demands will be answered in time.

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The Cubs would love to change a narrative that they can’t keep their homegrown talent around for the long haul. When Atlanta’s Alex Anthopoulos continues to extend players at ridiculously team-friendly contracts, it only puts more pressure on Hoyer. But it’s not just on Hoyer, of course. The players in Atlanta are agreeing to those deals.

Certainly, Hoyer would love it if he could get these players on deals that are so under market value. He and former team president Theo Epstein jumped on the opportunity to extend Kyle Hendricks prior to the 2019 season. Báez probably would still be in the fold had the pandemic not led to the Cubs pulling their extension offer as concerns about their finances arose.

Perhaps if Happ saw himself in the range of Andrew Benintendi, who signed with the White Sox this winter for five years and $75 million, an agreement would already be done. But does he view himself more in the Brandon Nimmo stratosphere? Nimmo, a Scott Boras client, re-signed with the Mets for eight years and a hefty $162 million. Perhaps meeting in the middle, where Hoyer gets his way on years and Happ gets closer to Nimmo’s average annual value, would make sense as a compromise.

There are about four weeks before pitchers and catchers report. Once that happens, the likelihood of an extension probably drops. It doesn’t disappear altogether, but it’s in the best interest of all sides to avoid those distractions and focus on the task at hand, trying to get back to the top of the National League Central. The clock is ticking.

“Sometimes things come together really quick,” Happ said. “You have a couple good conversations, then move fast and it makes a lot of sense. Sometimes things drag and you’re far enough apart that it doesn’t make sense. It’s hard to say. It’s not a great answer, but it’s the answer. We’ll see.”

(Top photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)

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